If COVID mutates, will the vaccine still work?

By Dr. John Kitsteiner, MD

Quick Answer: Probably. But if not, it’s likely not that big of a problem

There is always the possibility that any virus will mutate... that’s honestly very common with viruses, and we have no reason to think SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is any different in that sense.

So if another strain of COVID develops, will that new strain be immune to this vaccine?

Well, it depends on how much the virus mutates. Remember, a vaccine (and natural immunity) causes the development of antibodies that “recognize” that bad virus. If the virus mutates a little bit, it’s likely that the virus will still be recognized by the antibodies. Kind of like if your best friend cut their hair... you would still recognize them.

In reality though, most virus mutations are almost entirely unnoticeable. They are small changes that don’t do much to the virus or the host. Kind of like if your best friend changes their socks. No one really notices or cares.

But occasionally, a virus may mutate a whole lot, and then maybe the antibodies won’t recognize the virus. Sort of like if your best friend cut and dyed their hair, completely changed their wardrobe, wore a big hat, and spoke in a foreign accent. You may still recognize them, but maybe you wouldn’t.

Here’s the good news...

Usually, when infectious viruses mutate, the mutation makes the virus less harmful. The mutation MAY make the virus more contagious, but almost every time, it is less deadly.

Think about it, if a virus’ goal is to maintain its existence, it wants to keep reproducing. It would want to make itself more contagious (so it spreads more) but less deadly (so the host doesn’t die, but keeps spreading the virus). Now, of course, viruses are not sentient beings; they are not planning their mutations.

Also remember that most coronaviruses which infect humans cause common cold symptoms. So, it is possible... likely even... that if the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19) mutates significantly, then even if the vaccines don’t work, they also likely wouldn’t even be needed.

But, for argument’s sake, let’s ask the question if (and there’s a lot of “ifs”)

- the virus mutates

- the new virus is still as contagious

- the new virus is still as deadly

- the mutation alters the virus enough so that the current vaccine-induced antibodies don’t recognize it

Then, yes, we will need a new COVID-19 vaccine (maybe the COVID-20 vaccine?).

However, IF that happens, now that we have the new type of vaccine (the mRNA vaccines) we would now able to produce a new COVID vaccine much faster, and there will unlikely be a big concern about developing a vaccine, if a new vaccine is even needed.